A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
